How 2009 Results Should Impact Your 2010 FFL Draft

For most of us, the Fantasy Football season is over. The easy thing to do at this point would be to bask in glory or wallow in defeat. But why not take a look at the 2009 season and see what we've learned that will help us for the 2010 draft? Well, I'll just do it for you, how about that?

Perhaps the biggest question surrounding drafting in our little game is how should you positionally draft? Traditionally, the most popular and accepted draft method was to go RB, RB with your first two picks. This can still work. My wife drafted Jackson and Gore with her first two picks (both finished Top 10 for RBs) and did not sacrifice getting a Top 5 WR (Wayne) or a Top 5 QB (Rivers). In another league, an owner took Peterson and Chris Johnson with his first two picks, and look where those two ended up! The RB-RB selection is not dead; but I do find it ill-advised. Here's why:

When taking a look at Average Draft Positions (ADP) this year, I noticed that out of the first 20 RBs drafted, only 5 finished in the Top 10. Compare that with WRs, who had 8 of the top 20 drafted finish in the Top 10. QBs, the most predictable position, had 7 of the top 10 drafted finish in the Top 10. Only one of the Top 10 drafted finished outside of the top 12 (Jay "Poopy" Cutler). From this we can conclude the RB position is now the hardest to predict.

And it will get harder. The league continues to get more violent. Two of the league's top backs, Portis and Westbrook, missed most of the season with concussions. More than ever before, concussions are being monitored and moreso, respected as the dangerous injuries they in fact are. A RB gets hit more than any other player on the field, thus improving chances for a concussion as well as other injuries. As the league has recognized this, two-back and even three-back systems are becoming more popular (see Giants 2008, Cowboys 2009), thus limiting the touches of many of the league's top backs. Perhaps the coup de grace of the "go for RB's early mentality" is that the league is more pass heavy than ever before. As offenses have become more sophisticated, with greater schemes and super-athletic wideouts, a game is more likely to end in a shootout than a defensive struggle. Did you notice there was not one dominant defense in the league this year? Did you also notice that QBs are putting up bigger numbers than ever? As the league continues to implement rules that protect the QB and augment offenses, the QB and the WR will thrive more and more.

With that said, I must offer one disclaimer. Out of the Top 10 fantasy players in standard scoring leagues this season, there were 4 RB's (3 in the Top 5) and 6 QB's. No receivers. Interesting.

So what are we to make of all this to help us in 2010? I think that if you have a Top 3 pick you are fine picking CJ, AP, or MJD. All have exhibited amazing skill, receiving ability, and end-zone finding for multiple years now. It is highly likely the top 3-5 RBs (whether it is these guys or not) will score more fantasy points than any WRs, barring any Randy Moss-esque-2007-type performances. But after those guys previously mentioned, I'd feel really good about getting an elite WR or QB in the 1st round. If I have the option b/t Brees, Andre Johnson and Gore, I'm taking Brees or AJ, no questions asked. Even though Gore is awesome, I would have to take him mid-late first round, and most of the time, that is a risky place to get a RB.

So, what will your strategy be?

The Pieces of a Winning Fantasy Roster

What do you need on your Fantasy Football roster to total big points every week? Yes, of course good players. But how you got those players is what’s really important. I can guarantee that you didn’t draft all of them. No, half your draft picks were horrible. It’s okay, so were everyone else’s. But how you managed your team to have the consummate squad by the end of the year is what is important.

This year, I won the fantasy championship in my favorite league. When looking at the roster, I noticed that each player was acquired and/or made a difference in a unique way. I will explore each starting lineup slot, and perhaps you can glean something from each player’s uniqueness.

QB- The Franchise- Drew Brees- Every roster needs a player that is a big point scorer that you paid a lot for (high draft pick). Usually you acquire “the franchise” in your first two picks. These are players that have proven success, likely over a few years, and you know are going to be solid barring any major setback such as injury. Brees was my second pick, and I highly valued getting a great quarterback early, because they are such a premium in this league. The “six-points-per-TD pass rule” gives you a great advantage if you have a quarterback who throws a lot of touchdowns. I knew this guy would be solid all year and I wouldn’t need another roster spot for a QB.

WR- The Pickup- Miles Austin- Nearly every FFL team has a player that no one anticipated being worth any value before the season started. It happens every year. This year, Austin burst onto the scene with a 250 yard, 3 TD effort versus the Chiefs. Typically, I don’t jump on a guy after only one good week. However, several things were happening here: A) I had a guy on my roster I was more than willing to dump (so why not); B) Roy Williams, the presumed #1 WR for the Cowboys was obviously not that anymore and; C) This was not just a good week, this was a great week. Surely this guy has some higher level of talent to produce such fantastic numbers. Austin ended up being my highest scoring receiver and a Top Five fantasy receiver.

WR- The Stalwart- Anquan Boldin- Every roster needs a guy whom you can count on, and a guy that you will put in your roster even if he is banged up. Boldin can be in your lineup without you ever having to question whether or not to sit him. Therefore, I really only needed to make a decision on one WR slot every week, not two.

RB- The Blockbuster Trade Steal- Chris Johnson- Trading is not a highly popular option for acquiring players in any of my leagues. However, a unique situation presented itself after Week 6 this season. An owner was willing to change up his roster significantly in hopes of jump-starting his team. I owned Steven Jackson, who had been getting the yards but was not getting the TD’s. Chris Johnson had only blown up once at this point, so the jury was still out on his awesomeness. I looked at the matchups for the next 4-5 weeks for Johnson and Jackson. CJ’s matchups were more favorable, I believed the Titans offense would come around and the Rams’ would not, and I was willing to roll the dice, being in the middle of the pack in our league. The trade happened, CJ came off a buy and killed it the rest of year, being the league’s #1 RB in fantasy points by a substantial margin. Sometimes, a blockbuster trade is necessary if you feel like it needs to happen to push you over the top.

RB- The Late Round Monster- Cedric Benson- Typically, after the 6^th round in a 10 team league, the chances of landing a viable fantasy player drop off significantly. Really, you can hope for 1-3 decent players in the final 8 or 9 rounds. I drafted Benson in the 9^th round as my 5^th running back.

FLEX- Mr. Consistency- Steve Smith (NYG)- I love having a guy that I can count on for solid (though not outstanding) points every week. I especially love to have this guy in my FLEX spot. Many leagues have a FLEX spot, where you can input a RB or WR. Usually this is a matchup play. But sometimes, you have a guy who just gets it done quietly every week, and gives you double-digit fantasy points you can count on. I picked up Smith early in the season and played him almost every week afterwards. In weeks 8-16, Smith got double-digit fantasy points in every week but one, and in that week he got nine points. Possession receivers are great FLEX players and are highly consistent fantasy producers.

TE- The Power Sub- Fred Davis- Cooley went down for me. I picked up Olsen who was crappy for three straight weeks. Picked up Davis who was good until Week 16. He was the only player on my roster who did not produce double-digit points in the final week.

K- Mr. Stick With Me- Mason Crosby- I will not elaborate on the unpredictable nature of kickers here; it has been well documented. What I will say about Crosby is he had been good most of the year, but had struggled in recent weeks. His numbers were sub-pedestrian the last few weeks, and I almost dropped him before the Championship. Why didn’t I? Well, he was going up against the Seahawks, a team who allows a lot of points. He is on the Packers, a team who scores a lot of points. I figure, if the Packers score 5 TDs, he will get at least 5 points. If they stall a couple of times, he has a chance at a field goal or two. And 14 fantasy points later, I was quite satisfied with my decision.

DEF- The Home Defense- Cincinnati- I love adding/dropping defenses and playing the matchups. My rule is to pick up a decent/good defense who is playing at home against a low-level opponent that likes to turn the ball over and struggles on offense. Cinci was at home against the Chiefs, and I figured the Chiefs would not score much and were likely to turnover the ball a time or two. Cinci’s D scored nine points, and I’ll take that every week, considering the unpredictability of defenses.

In retrospect, every roster slot I filled this week produced as I hoped they would, with the exception of Davis. I scored 122 fantasy points and took home the title. Victory is sweet. Stay tuned for more about what I learned this year and how you can prepare for success next year…

Winning Consistently in Fantasy Football (It's Possible!)

Another Fantasy Football season in the books. There have been plenty of things I have learned, and plenty of things I learned last year helped me win more this year. This week, through several blog posts, I plan to share my perspective and newly acquired wisdom (okay, the wisdom part may be debatable!). I do submit that my Fantasy Football acumen has strengthened considerably in recent seasons. I believe that I am example that if you stick with it and commit to a lifestyle of nerdiness for four months of the year, you can beat a lot of the "unlucky" factors of the game and consistently win.

I have played FFL for four seasons now. My first season I didn't have a clue, thought kickers were important, and made the playoffs because I had LT, who that year scored about four touchdowns every game. My second season I was in two leagues. I made the finals in one and won the fantasy championship in the other. My third season, last year, I was in three leagues, finished first in the regular season in two leagues and lost in the championship in both of those leagues. The league I did not make the playoffs in had expanded to a 10-league team, the first I ever played in, and I missed the playoffs by one loss. This year, the other two leagues expanded to ten teams. I finished third in two leagues and won the championship in the other. In summary, in the last two years I have made the playoffs in five of six leagues and the championship half the time. I say all of this to demonstrate that it is possible to improve each season by taking the things you have learned and play the percentages in your favor. As long as you play the percentages, you will have little regret about your decision making. Even if something didn't pan out the way you thought it would, you can still be confident that you put yourself in the best position to win.

Tomorrow I will dissect my starting lineup in the league that I won the championship, and why each guy exemplifies a vital component of a winning FFL roster. Stay tuned...

Convict Boyfriends, Porkchops, and Getting Ripped in 90 Days

I thought today I would share a few observations:

1. Has anyone tried using these websites that help you look up people to see if they have a criminal record? I did hear a radio ad for nccrim.com. The ad suggested you can check up on different people, including your new relationship. Ladies, lemme tell you something. If you are going to nccrim.com to check up on your boyfriend, I suggest you immediately end that relationship. Truly, you have nothing to gain by going to the site. Think about it. If you are the kind of girl that likes dating a guy who seems dangerous, combustible, and perhaps violent, you are going to be really disappointed when you find out he has no criminal record and probably lives with his mother. And if you do find out he has a criminal record- well- he’s going to find out you looked him up, and then he’s probably going to kill you.

2. Have you ever heard an expression, thought about it, and realized that the expression was so hyperbolic it was comical? Someone was recently telling me about a meal they ate, and mentioned that they had a “grilled porkchop that was to die for”. Really? You would die for a porkchop? You must really love food. I’d die for my family, some of my friends, maybe even a good steak. But a porkchop? You can’t be serious. Come to think of it, that porkchop actually died for you. Indirectly, you had something to do with that pig’s ultimate demise. Maybe you should say you would kill for that porkchop. Now that... would be a true statement.


3. Surely you have seen those ads for “GETTING RIPPED IN 90 DAYS!”. Have you paid attention to the before and after shots? The marketer is attempting to entice me with the “after shot”, and how much greater the guy looks with his awesome muscular figure. Is it sad that I am impressed with the “before shot” and kind of wished I could just look like that? There is a great ad idea for wimps like me! “GET SOME SEMBLANCE OF MUSCLE IN 8 DAYS!” or, “LOOK MILDLY ATTRACTIVE WITH YOUR SHIRT OFF BUT FLABBY ENOUGH WHERE IT IS OBVIOUS YOU CANNOT AFFORD A BOFLEX!” I think I’m on to something.